“We think additional easing is only a matter of time as long as the BoJ adheres to its 2 per cent inflation target,” said Naohiko Baba at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo.
A range of tactical problems make it hard to act this week, however, even if the US Federal Reserve holds rates a day earlier. A dovish message from the Fed could push the yen up even further.
The BoJ’s biggest tactical obstacle is the Brexit referendum. If it eases this week and Britain then votes to leave the EU the yen might rise anyway. That risks fuelling a public perception that BoJ policy is ineffective.
Easing now also risks the appearance of political interference ahead of upper house elections on July 10, while the BoJ will not publish new economic forecasts — accounting for prime minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to postpone a scheduled rise in consumption tax — until its next meeting in July.
All of those factors make July a more likely date for action than June, although BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda likes to surprise.
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