IS THERE ANY ALPHA LEFT IN FX?

https://www.man.com/2/is-there-any-alpha-left-in-FX
2015.01.30

In the coming few years, we believe there will be two sources of alpha in FX
1. while big trend have been elusive recently, they are likely to return as economies  start diverging again.
==> This process is already started as the US economy is outperforming

2. There are a number of alpha sources independent of big trends, such as macroeconomic fundamentals an non-trend statistical indicators.

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EXCHANGE RATE TRENDS WILL RETURN AN ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS DIVERGE

1. Foreign exchange rates reflect the relative economic fundamentals of a pair of countries.

2. When two countries'(or regions) fundamentals diverge significantly over an extended period, the resulting adjustment in their exchange rate often leads to a multi-year trend.

3. Historically, most currency managers based their trading on momentum and carry strategies.

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